Monday, 9th February, 2026

What could happen to the Liberal government? Three possible scenarios for the House of Commons

Toronto. Justin Trudeau is reportedly taking the holiday break to reflect on his future. That means a lot can happen by the time the House of Commons resumes on Jan. 27

Whatever Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decides to do, the Liberal government’s days are numbered. Photo by Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press/File
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As Parliamentarians of all stripes head home for the holidays, their hands are likely full of gifts (maybe a bottle of Speaker’s Scotch or Canadian whisky?) and their heads full of questions about what will happen to the federal government.They aren’t the only ones, as Canadians are left puzzling about what fate awaits the Trudeau government in the next few weeks.

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“We just don’t know,” sighed Carleton University associate professor Philippe Lagassé.

Last week marked one of the wildest ends of a Parliamentary session in recent history. Within five days, Finance Minister Chrystia resigned on the morning of the fall economic statement, the government announced a $62-billion deficit, dozens of Liberal MPs called for Trudeau’s resignation and the prime minister massively shuffled his cabinet by adding eight new faces to the table.

Trudeau’s fate as head of the Liberal party is also increasingly in question, with reports noting he’s taking the holiday break to reflect on his future. That means a lot can happen by the time the House of Commons resumes on Jan. 27.

Either way, the Liberal government’s days are numbered, with all three opposition party leaders having announced they will support a non-confidence vote this spring.

To help our readers sound like the most erudite politicos at their holiday family gatherings, National Post presents three possible scenarios of what happens to the House of Commons.

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